When will AI be better than humans at AI research? (Self-Improving AI)
42
1.4kṀ35562101
72%
Before 2030
76%
Before 2035
84%
Before 2040
85%
Before 2050
88%
Before 2070
91%
Before 2100
When will there be an AI which is better at doing AI research than the average human AI researcher not using AI?
The AI must be capable of doing everything that a current AI researcher does, including coming up with new research ideas, brainstorming with coworkers, writing code, debugging, doing code reviews, communicating results, and writing papers.
If this is constrained to a specific domain of AI research such as LLM development or interpretability that still counts.
This question is meant to be another version of "When will we get text AGI / transformative AI"
All answers which are true resolve Yes.
A question which is conditional on this one:
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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