What will be the median p(doom) of AI researchers after AGI is reached?

Question

AGI defined as an AI that is better at AI research than the average human AI researcher not using AI.

p(doom) defined as human extinction or outcomes that are similarly bad.

In Katya Grace's 2022 survey, median values were 5% for "extremely bad outcome (e.g., human extinction)” and 5-10% for human extinction.

All answers which are true resolve Yes.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Above 5%, followed by Above 10% and Above 20% are most likely. See the market for live updates (17 traders, as of Mar 11, 2026).