Update 2025-10-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolves YES if Hamas and Israel both publicly agree simultaneously, in apparent good faith, to some version of Trump's plan.
Implementation is not required for resolution.
If there is substantial ambiguity about whether an agreement counts, the market will resolve N/A.
Update 2025-10-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Modifications to Trump's plan can still resolve YES if the plan's central points remain mostly intact.
Central points (per BBC listing): 1, 2, 3, 4, 13, 16. Deals not including nearly all of these mostly intact will resolve NO or N/A.
Important but flexible: points 5, 9, 12, 15 may be modified without affecting resolution.
If the agreement is very different from the original (i.e., ambiguous whether it is Trump's plan), the market will resolve N/A.
Update 2025-10-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Point 6 is not core; modifications to it are allowed. If Point 6 is modified but most other central points are agreed to, the market can still resolve YES.
Update 2025-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator will wait to see confirmation that a deal was actually signed and review the details of the deal before resolving. Market looks likely to resolve YES at this point based on Trump's announcement.
Update 2025-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Creator is waiting for confirmation that a deal was actually signed and will review which specific points were agreed to before resolving, as resolution depends on whether the agreed points match the criteria outlined in previous updates.
Update 2025-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Hamas refuses to fully disarm, the market will resolve NO (not N/A), as this would violate point 13, which is a central point of Trump's plan.
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From a Qatari mediator (source):
“The mediators announce that an agreement was reached tonight on all terms and mechanisms for implementing the first phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement, which will lead to stopping the war, releasing Israeli detainees and Palestinian prisoners, and allowing aid to enter. The details will be announced later.”
My read is that this hits point 3 of the agreement military operations suspended) but we don’t know whether points 1, 2, 4, 13, or 16 (Gaza terror free zone, Gaza redevelopment, all hostages returned in 72 hours, Hamas has no governance role, conditional Israeli withdrawal) are agreed at this stage. Should not be 80%
@brod in my view peaks of 94% in this market was too much, before knowing the details. Other markets with clearer resolutions were cheaper, but they are mostly bought already.
Maybe this one is an opportunity: When will the hostilities in Gaza end? | Manifold
also @ManifoldPolitics @Joshua perhaps this should be subsidised? market’s been top of the homepage for a couple days but moves if you sneeze
@BenAybar et al please stop spamming comments. As I stated previously, I am waiting to see confirmation of deal signed and which points were agreed to, since resolution depends on which points were agreed to
@JeromeHPowell this is the post:
https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115340993884364431
I am very proud to announce that Israel and Hamas have both signed off on the first Phase of our Peace Plan. This means that ALL of the Hostages will be released very soon, and Israel will withdraw their Troops to an agreed upon line as the first steps toward a Strong, Durable, and Everlasting Peace. All Parties will be treated fairly! This is a GREAT Day for the Arab and Muslim World, Israel, all surrounding Nations, and the United States of America, and we thank the mediators from Qatar, Egypt, and Turkey, who worked with us to make this Historic and Unprecedented Event happen. BLESSED ARE THE PEACEMAKERS!
DONALD J. TRUMP
PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
@JeromeHPowell I'll wait to see confirmation a deal was actually signed + details of the deal. Looks likely to resolve yes at this point.
Talks underway, may take "a few days" according to Trump. I've pushed resolution out to Sunday (but may still resolve earlier or later per previous comments).
Source: e.g. https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-gaza-hamas-trump-10-06-25