This market resolves to YES if at least one Israeli hostage is released from Gaza as part of the Trump peace plan implementation by October 15, 2025.

Context: On October 3, 2025, Hamas agreed to release all Israeli hostages, both living and deceased, as part of Trump's Gaza peace plan. There are currently 48 hostages still being held in Gaza, with approximately 20 believed to be alive. The plan calls for hostages to be released within 72 hours of an agreement, but Hamas has indicated that locating all hostages, especially deceased ones, may take longer.

Resolution criteria: This market will resolve to YES if at least one Israeli hostage (alive) is transferred from Hamas custody to Israeli authorities or the Red Cross by 11:59 PM ET on October 15, 2025. The release must be officially confirmed by the Israeli government, the Red Cross, or credible international media sources. The market resolves to NO if no hostages are released by the deadline.

Sources for resolution:

• Israeli government official statements: https://www.gov.il/en/departments/news

• International Committee of the Red Cross: https://www.icrc.org/en/where-we-work/middle-east/israel-and-occupied-territories

• Major news outlets reporting on the hostage releases