Netanyahu ceases to be prime minister before a permanent Israel-Hamas ceasefire is reached?

1kṀ2556

Dec 31

35%

chance

ALL

This market resolves YES if Benjamin Netanyahu is no longer the Prime Minister of Israel before a permanent ceasefire agreement is reached between Israel and Hamas. It resolves NO if a permanent ceasefire agreement is reached while Netanyahu is still prime minister.

A permanent ceasefire is defined as a formal agreement between Israel and Hamas that explicitly states an end to hostilities without a specified end date (not a temporary pause). Netanyahu ceasing to be prime minister includes resignation, removal from office, electoral defeat, or any other means by which he no longer holds the position.

Resolution will be based on reputable news sources such as Reuters, AP, or official government statements.

Sources:

Update 2025-10-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If there is no formal agreement, a permanent ceasefire will be recognized after 3 months without fighting between Israel and Hamas; the war is considered ended at that 3-month mark. This supersedes the prior 6-month threshold.

Israel

Arab-Israeli Conflict

Israel-Hamas Conflict

Gaza

Israeli Politics

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026?

60% chance

When will there be a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas War?

Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the Israel–Hamas war ends?

35% chance

Will Benjamin Netanyahu stop being prime minister of Israel before the end of the Israel-Hamas war

35% chance

Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the end of 2025?

4% chance

Will Benjamin Netanyahu remain the prime minister of Israel until the next election?

Sort by:

I will consider the ceasefire permanent and war to have ended 6 months after fighting has stopped

Edit. I changed it to 3 months

@PoliticalEconomyPK IMO if both sides declare unequivocally that the ceasefire is permanent, then this should resolve NO unless it falls apart immediately. Waiting one month would be more than enough.

OTOH, there are scenarios where the conflict could be suspended, even for longer than six months, but with the "rights reserved" to continue fighting if, eg, finsl status talks break down. In that case I don't know what the resolution should be

@AhronMaline 3 seems like a happy medium. Lets go with 3 months without fighting

@PoliticalEconomyPK my point isn't to bargain over the wait time - I'm actually a YES holder lol. I'm saying that "will the ceasefire hold" is a different and easier question from "does this arrangement count as 'permanent ceasefire'", and adding wait time doesn't help all that much for the latter.

@AhronMaline im not trying to bargain. The extra time is just to give me a clearer picure so that I can resolve it to the best of my abilities

What if there is a ceasefire "while negotiations are ongoing" but without an end date? In which case, I imagine the negotiations will continue only until Israel declares them over...