The commentary on my yes/no market about the deal
https://manifold.markets/ae/hamas-accepts-trumps-proposed-peace?r=YWU
indicated demand for a percentage resolution version. Instead, I offer this numeric market.
Similar to the other market, I will use my best judgment as to the exact count. Example: If there is agreement on slightly amended versions of two points, I may count that as +1 rather than +0 or +2. Please do not make annoying comments about fractional resolution.
I will extend the resolution timeline long enough to get a good signal on the actual agreement. If there is a phased timeline (see comments in other market), I will use my best judgment, favoring timely resolution over exactness on a longer timeline. I would like this resolved some time this month (October), end of year at the outside.
Enjoy!
Update 2025-10-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If no final deal is reached, this resolves to 0, even if both sides agree on many points.
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I tend to think this negotiation round's results will be announced as:
A) negotiations failed (0 points)
or
B) plan agreed (20 points), even if some of the points include vague wording that needs to be detailed later
I don't expect an announcement like "we agreed this 13 points, and we don't care any longer about these other 7 points"
@MiguelLM Agreed. Note though that this'll resolve to creator's best judgement on the number of agreed upon points, not media headlines or announcements.
@Primer If it helps, I will try to be pretty conservative in applying my judgment — in the sense that if there is media consensus by reputable outlets, I will follow that even if I disagree personally. I don't expect this scenario to happen.