Resolution criteria
This market will resolve YES if, according to both resolution sources, Ukraine achieves a net territorial gain in the week ending 23 May 2026.
This market will resolve NO if, according to both resolution sources, Ukraine does not achieve a net territorial gain in the week ending 23 May 2026.
This market will otherwise resolve 50% YES and 50% NO.
Resolution sources
The resolution sources are:
Clarifications
DeepStateUA's estimate will be obtained by comparing its most recent update as of 23:59 EEST on 23 May with its update at 22:42 EEST on 16 May. Ukraine's net territorial change will be inferred from changes to the area controlled by Russia and the area controlled by neither side.
I may trade in this market. If I believe the resolution of this market is likely to be contentious, I will either sell my shares or entrust a Manifold mod with resolving the market.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ165 | |
| 2 | Ṁ12 | |
| 3 | Ṁ9 | |
| 4 | Ṁ2 | |
| 5 | Ṁ2 |
Per DeepState, the area controlled by Russia increased by 13km² while grey zone increased by 5km², meaning Ukraine had a net loss of ~18km². (Note: DeepState's most recent update as of 23:59 EEST on 23 May was at 21:50 EEST on 22 May.)
Poulet volant, on the other hand, says Ukraine had a net gain of ~20km²:
For the second week in a row, the market resolves 50-50 as we have one source on each side of the threshold.
Next week's market: