Resolution criteria
This market will resolve YES if, according to both resolution sources, Ukraine achieves a net territorial gain in the week ending 23 May 2026.
This market will resolve NO if, according to both resolution sources, Ukraine does not achieve a net territorial gain in the week ending 23 May 2026.
This market will otherwise resolve 50% YES and 50% NO.
Resolution sources
The resolution sources are:
Clarifications
DeepStateUA's estimate will be obtained by comparing its most recent update as of 23:59 EEST on 23 May with its update at 22:42 EEST on 16 May. Ukraine's net territorial change will be inferred from changes to the area controlled by Russia and the area controlled by neither side.
I may trade in this market. If I believe the resolution of this market is likely to be contentious, I will either sell my shares or entrust a Manifold mod with resolving the market.
1,000