Resolves based on the "Russian Net Monthly Advance" report of Black Bird group (positive values resolve NO, negative resolve YES) - typically published at their X account (xcancel.com/Black_BirdGroup). Here is their assessment as of May 2026 (from https://xcancel.com/Black_BirdGroup/status/2062585511340916856):
For context some analysts like Mike Kofman (e.g. in https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-long-game-with-jake-sullivan-and-jon-finer/id1850526014?i=1000771130026) believe that Ukraine has gained initiative on the battlefield and is likely to keep it for the next few months.
If the group does not publish a new assessment following the same methodology by September 1st, this resolves NA.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ85 | |
| 2 | Ṁ23 | |
| 3 | Ṁ23 | |
| 4 | Ṁ23 | |
| 5 | Ṁ22 |
According to our data, in July the net gains of the Russian armed forces in Ukraine were approximately 106km².
https://xcancel.com/Black_BirdGroup/status/2084706401968935422#m
This same question for June just resolved YES as BlackBird reported decrease of Russia-controlled territory by 9km2 (https://xcancel.com/Black_BirdGroup/status/2073762059733340507#m)