Resolution criteria
This market will resolve YES if, according to DeepStateUA, Russia achieves a net territorial gain in July 2026.
This market will resolve NO if, according to DeepStateUA, Russia does not achieve a net territorial gain in July 2026.
Clarifications
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For related markets, see my Russia-Ukraine dashboard.
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@a_l_e_x Please provide an English translation of this screenshot and a link to the result on DeepStateUA, preferably in English.
@MustafaAbuSneineh the above translation is accurate.
Telegram post: https://t.me/DeepStateUA/23716
Archive link: https://archive.is/aHIDQ
@RafalPastuszak Translation
🏹 In July, the enemy occupied more territory than the Ukrainian Defence Forces recaptured. The net gain on the map amounts to 36 square kilometres
🗺 However, there is one important detail — and we have highlighted it in the circled figure. This is the change in net gains between May and July, as the Defence Forces’ successes are reflected with a time lag. In July, we reduced the area of occupied territory by 52 square kilometres. Of this, 25 square kilometres were regained in May and 27 square kilometres in June. Thus, the enemy’s net territorial gain in July may amount to 88 square kilometres. That said, the Defence Forces achieved further successes in July; whilst these were significantly smaller than previous ones, they did occur.
📐This complex maths is due to operational security, as we report on Ukraine’s successes with a delay necessary for their successful completion. Overall, there have been gains in at least two further sectors, amounting to 49 and 83 square kilometres respectively; therefore, as soon as the Defence Forces’ successes are officially announced, we will disclose the details and provide the statistics.
🤔 Returning to the analysis of July, the situation remains worst near Rodynske, Kostiantynivka, along the Donetsk-Kharkiv motorway, and in the direction of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. It is in these areas that the enemy has achieved minor, but significant, gains. As we have written previously, the Russians’ objective of occupying the entire Donetsk region by 2026 is unrealistic. At the current rate, they will have no chance even by 2027. It remains to be seen whether there will be a mobilisation in the Russian Federation this autumn at all, and to what extent North Korean forces will be involved.
Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
@uair01 Cheers. It is understandable that UDF will withhold complete data due to the ongoing military operations.

