Resolution criteria
This market will resolve YES if, according to both resolution sources, Ukraine achieves a net territorial gain in the week ending 30 May 2026.
This market will resolve NO if, according to both resolution sources, Ukraine does not achieve a net territorial gain in the week ending 30 May 2026.
This market will otherwise resolve 50% YES and 50% NO.
Resolution sources
The resolution sources are:
Clarifications
DeepStateUA's estimate will be obtained by comparing its most recent update as of 23:59 EEST on 30 May with its update at 21:50 EEST on 22 May. Ukraine's net territorial change will be inferred from changes to the area controlled by Russia and the area controlled by neither side.
I may trade in this market. If I believe the resolution of this market is likely to be contentious, I will either sell my shares or entrust a Manifold mod with resolving the market.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ40 | |
| 2 | Ṁ12 | |
| 3 | Ṁ11 | |
| 4 | Ṁ5 | |
| 5 | Ṁ5 |
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@LastLiquidity Title says "pro-Ukraine mappers", description mentions both sources. I know some people only focus on title OR description, but did you somehow read neither? Also, you made the largest profit on this market, in what sense was your bet wasted?
@LastLiquidity sorry, I'm not sure what you mean. Both sources are pro-Ukraine. Had I run this market every week for the last couple of years, the vast majority would have resolved YES or NO and very few would have been 50-50. I get that the 50-50 resolutions are annoying though
Per DeepState, Russian territorial control decreased by 29km² while grey zone increased by 41km². That's a net loss of ~12km² for Ukraine.
Poulet volant reports a net gain of ~29km², however:
With one source on each side, the market resolves 50-50.
I expect some of you are getting tired of the 50-50 resolutions in these markets and I feel the same. I'll look at reworking the resolution criteria for future markets
@a_l_e_x For future markets, you could resolve proportionally to the numbers, e. g. ~29km² gain versus ~12km² loss resolves to 29/(29+12) = ~71%.
@4fa that's a good idea I hadn't thought of!
Some other alternatives are:
Resolve YES/NO based on the average of the two estimates
Resolve based on just one source
Add a third source (I would probably have to calculate the change manually) and resolve to the majority
Open to input from anyone