🏅 Top traders

@a_l_e_x The recently confirmed ukrainian advances happened during the last 3 months, can we get a second look at the market's results?

@GastropodGaming if two resolution sources retrospectively change their estimates for July enough to flip the result, I would consider re-resolving.

Tbh I would usually be cautious to do so - I generally think markets should resolve based on the information available at the time and there should be a sense of finality to it. At some point the resolution has to stand. This market is very recent though, so I'm open to it for now.

I understand DeepState has just revealed Ukrainian advances that it concealed over the past few months for OPSEC reasons. But note that our resolution sources here don't include DeepState and weren't necessarily constrained by Ukrainian OPSEC. For instance, AMK Mapping has been openly covering this counteroffensive since February, so he likely has no reason to adjust his past estimates.

So I'll keep an eye out, but given all three sources had Russia gaining >100km² in July, I think the outcome's unlikely to flip

Black Bird Group, AMK Mapping and Divgen all report net gains for Russia in July - resolves YES.

Black Bird Group (@Black_BirdGroup) on X

Seems roughly coherent with ISW indicating major drop after jan-feb 2026

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-2-2026/