Resolution criteria

This market will resolve YES if, at any time before the close date, the Russian Federation has de facto control of the entirety of central Konstantinovka, Donetsk Oblast. For the purpose of this market, this refers to the area shaded yellow in the image below:

This market will resolve NO if any part of this area is contested or controlled by Ukraine until the close date.

For the duration of the war, any YES or NO resolution must be supported by a majority of the following mappers:

• UAControlMap

• Black Bird Group

• AMK Mapping

• Kalibrated Maps

• Divgen

Close date

This market is set to close at 23:59 UTC on 30 November 2026.

Clarifications

Konstantinovka is also known as Kostiantynivka or Kostyantynivka.

I may trade in this market. If I believe the resolution of this market is likely to be contentious, I will either sell my shares or entrust a Manifold mod with resolving the market.