Resolution criteria

This market will resolve YES if, at the close date, at least one resolution source indicates that the Russian Federation or its armed forces control at least 90% (i.e. 47,880km²) of the Donbass region and no other resolution source contradicts this assessment.

This market will resolve 50% if, at the close date, at least one resolution source indicates that the Russian Federation or its armed forces control at least 90% of the Donbass region and at least one other resolution source contradicts this assessment.

This market will otherwise resolve NO.

Resolution sources

The resolution sources are:

• creamy_caprice

• Reuters

• ISW

• DeepState

Close date

This market is set to close at 21:00:00 UTC on 31 December 2025.

Clarifications

For the purpose of this market, the ‘Donbass region’ comprises Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast in their entirety. The region has a total area of 53,200 square kilometres.

In determining whether a resolution source indicates or contradicts something, I may consider the recency of its last update.

I will not trade in this market.