Will Russia control at least 95% of Donbass at the end of October 2026?

Question

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve YES if the Russian Federation has de facto control of at least 95.00% of the Donbass region at the close date.

This market will resolve NO if the Russian Federation has de facto control of less than 95.00% of the Donbass region at the close date.

Resolution sources

Should the Russia-Ukraine conflict reach a formal conclusion by the close date, the resolution of this market will be informed by a consensus of media reports, if one exists.

If the conflict is ongoing at the close date, or the extent of Russia’s territorial control is uncertain, the market will resolve according to estimates obtained from the following sources:

Suriyakmaps

Poulet volant

Creamy caprice

Any resolution in these circumstances must be supported by a majority of the three sources.

Substitute resolution sources

If, at the close date, a resolution source has not provided an estimate in the previous 20 days, it may be replaced by a substitute resolution source. Should this occur:

Suriyakmaps is to be replaced by ISW

Poulet volant is to be replaced by DeepState (ruler tool)

Creamy caprice is to be replaced by Divgen (ruler tool)

Close date

This market will close at 23:59:00 UTC on 1 November 2026 and will not resolve sooner.

Clarifications

For the purpose of this market, the Donbass region consists of Donetsk Oblast and Lugansk Oblast in their entirety, and has a total area of 53,200 square kilometres. The exact threshold for a YES resolution is therefore 50,540 square kilometres.

I will not trade in this market.

Manifold Markets · Answer

Likely — Manifold Markets prediction market estimates a 60% chance (19 traders, as of Apr 23, 2026).