This market will resolve YES if the Russian Federation has 

 control of at least 95.00% of the Donbass region at the close date.

This market will resolve NO if the Russian Federation has 

 control of less than 95.00% of the Donbass region at the close date.

Should the Russia-Ukraine conflict reach a formal conclusion by the close date, the resolution of this market will be informed by a consensus of media reports, if one exists.

If the conflict is ongoing at the close date, or the extent of Russia’s territorial control is uncertain, the market will resolve according to estimates obtained from the following sources:

Any resolution in these circumstances must be supported by a majority of the three sources.

If, at the close date, a resolution source has not provided an estimate in the previous 20 days, it may be replaced by a substitute resolution source. Should this occur:

This market will close at 23:59:00 UTC on 1 November 2026 and will not resolve sooner.

For the purpose of this market, the Donbass region consists of Donetsk Oblast and Lugansk Oblast in their entirety, and has a total area of 53,200 square kilometres. The exact threshold for a YES resolution is therefore 50,540 square kilometres.