Will Jeremy Corbyn lead a registered political party by the end of 2025?
21
100Ṁ1512
resolved Oct 1
Resolved
YES
27

Background

It is speculated that British politician Jeremy Corbyn, the former leader of the Labour Party, will soon form a new party.

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve YES if, at any time before the close date, Jeremy Corbyn is listed as the leader of any political party registered with the UK Electoral Commission.

This market will otherwise resolve NO.

Resolution source

The resolution of this market will be informed solely by the UK Electoral Commission's register of political parties.

Close date

This market is set to close at 00:00:00 UTC on 1 January 2026.

Further information

I will not trade in this market.

  • Update 2025-07-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): In response to a question about non-traditional leadership structures, the creator has confirmed that the UK Electoral Commission requires every party to register a single, official leader.

Even if a party has a structure like 'co-leaders', this market will resolve based on the one individual officially listed as the leader on the register.

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Corbyn is the official leader of Your Party, which has been registered by the Electoral Commission:

https://search.electoralcommission.org.uk/English/Registrations/PP18172

sold Ṁ20 YES

What happens if the party is registered but there is no centralised leadership?

@TheAllMemeingEye it will depend on who is listed as the leader on the Electoral Commission register. Every party is required to register a leader and it can't be more than one person (for example, the Green Party has two 'co-leaders', but only Adrian Ramsay is officially the leader)

bought Ṁ5 NO

@a_l_e_x ah right, seems then there's a moderate probability that Sultana gets registered as the official leader then

@TheAllMemeingEye my guess is that it will be Corbyn but yeah that is a real possibility

sold Ṁ73 YES

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