Background
Tasmania will hold a general election for its House of Assembly on 19 July 2025.
Resolution criteria
This market will resolve to the party that supplies the Premier sworn in following the Tasmanian state election.
Further information
As the resolution of this market is unlikely to be subjective, I may trade in this market.
Update 2025-08-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve to Liberal if Rockliff is sworn in as Premier following the election, even if he subsequently loses a motion of no confidence when parliament returns. The resolution is based solely on who is sworn in as Premier after the election, not on whether they maintain confidence of the House of Assembly afterward.
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As I understand it:
Rockliff is set to be sworn in as Premier "early next week"
Rockliff is likely to face a motion of no confidence when parliament returns on 19 August
As stated in the resolution criteria (and originally in the title too), the market will resolve to the party that supplies the Premier sworn in following the election.
If Rockliff is sworn in as Premier, this market will resolve Liberal even if Rockliff subsequently fails to gain the confidence of the House of Assembly. This is consistent with how real betting agencies (e.g. Sportsbet) handle this situation.
@JussiVilleHeiskanen yes, that's correct. Another way to phrase it would be "To which party will the Premier belong?"