Jeremy Rockliff II Tasman Premiership prop bets (2025-next election)
4
275Ṁ4792029
87%
Another early state election before 2029
66%
Second VONC Called
50%
Second VONC Succeeds
48%
Rockliff leads minority government for at least 1 year
34%
Liberals form supply and confidence agreement in support of Rockliff
24%
Another early state election within 1 year
22%
Liberals form coalition agreement in support of Rockliff
17%
Labor forms government/Labor MP holds Premiership at any point
4%
Labor-Green formal coalition in government (with or without formal independent support)
Resolved
YESVONC called
Liberal Jeremy Rockliff has been reappointed Premier of Tasmania following the 2025 Tasmanian state election. This election, called after just 1 year followed his ousting by a Labor-backed Vote of No Confidence, supported also by 5 Green MPs and 2 of the 5 Independent MPs. Overall parliamentary composition remained very similar, and with no party having been able to form a majority government so far the governor appointed Rockliff, who will have ~2 weeks to form government or face a potential VONC from Labor.
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