Jeremy Rockliff II Tasman Premiership prop bets (2025-next election)

Question

Liberal Jeremy Rockliff has been reappointed Premier of Tasmania following the 2025 Tasmanian state election. This election, called after just 1 year followed his ousting by a Labor-backed Vote of No Confidence, supported also by 5 Green MPs and 2 of the 5 Independent MPs. Overall parliamentary composition remained very similar, and with no party having been able to form a majority government so far the governor appointed Rockliff, who will have ~2 weeks to form government or face a potential VONC from Labor.

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Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Another early state election before 2029, followed by Second VONC Called and Liberals form supply and confidence agreement in support of Rockliff are most likely. See the market for live updates (5 traders, as of Aug 12, 2026).