Labor forms government/Labor MP holds Premiership at any point

Liberals form coalition agreement in support of Rockliff

Liberals form supply and confidence agreement in support of Rockliff

Rockliff leads minority government for at least 1 year

Labor-Green formal coalition in government (with or without formal independent support)

Another early state election within 1 year

Liberal Jeremy Rockliff has been reappointed Premier of Tasmania following the 2025 Tasmanian state election. This election, called after just 1 year followed his ousting by a Labor-backed Vote of No Confidence, supported also by 5 Green MPs and 2 of the 5 Independent MPs. Overall parliamentary composition remained very similar, and with no party having been able to form a majority government so far the governor appointed Rockliff, who will have ~2 weeks to form government or face a potential VONC from Labor.