Resolution criteria
This market will resolve OVER if Russia's net territorial gain in the Russia-Ukraine conflict amounts to more than 500 square kilometres in December 2025 according to the resolution sources.
This market will resolve UNDER if Russia's net territorial gain in the Russia-Ukraine conflict amounts to less than 500 square kilometres in December 2025 according to the resolution sources.
This market will resolve 50/50 if Russia's net territorial gain in the Russia-Ukraine conflict rounds to exactly 500 square kilometres in December 2025 according to the resolution sources.
Resolution sources
The resolution of this market will be based on the median estimate provided by the following eight sources:
Suriyakmaps (via HeyHeyHayden)
ISW (via ISW or Russia Matters)
Should one, two or three of the resolution sources fail to provide a usable estimate within 14 days of the market closing, the median of the available estimates will be used.
Should four or more of the resolution sources fail to provide a usable estimate within 14 days of the market closing, the market will be voided.
Clarifications
ISW's estimate will be obtained directly from ISW if possible. Otherwise, it will be obtained from Russia Matters.
The market may resolve early if the outcome is mathematically certain after five or more sources have reported.
I will not trade in this market.
Update 2025-12-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market concerns changes in de facto territorial control as assessed by the resolution sources, with no regard to what either side claims as its territory. This means the market is about actual occupied territory on the ground, not official territorial claims.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ15 | |
| 2 | Ṁ9 | |
| 3 | Ṁ7 | |
| 4 | Ṁ0 |
People are also trading
Black Bird Group's estimate is 347km², which means our estimates for December are as follows...
LostArmour: 573.74km²
Creamy caprice: 560.19km²
Divgen: 542km²
AMK Mapping: 534.05km²
ISW: 465km²
Suriyakmaps: 459.46km²
DeepState: 445km²
Black Bird Group: 347km²
(see this earlier comment for links)
To calculate the median of eight values, we use the mean of the fourth and fifth highest values (534.05 and 465), which is 499.525 or, when rounded to the nearest whole number, 500.
And pursuant to the resolution criteria...
This market will resolve 50/50 if Russia's net territorial gain in the Russia-Ukraine conflict rounds to exactly 500 square kilometres in December 2025 according to the resolution sources.
The market therefore resolves 50/50.
@a_l_e_x I'm both impressed that this actually came up and that it was previously specified in the criteria
How does one arrive at a median for 8 sources? There will be two values (for the number 4 and number 5), with some hypothetical median between them. Average of those two middle numbers, or how does it work?
If there were an odd number of sources one would just use the one right in the middle of the order, but with an even number it's less clear...
@BorisBartlog yes, assuming Black Bird gives an estimate, the median will be the average/mean of the fourth and fifth highest estimates (which could round to 500km² exactly for a rare 50% resolution 👀)
That's how I've always known the median to be calculated for an even number of values, and Wikipedia, Wiktionary, Merriam-Webster and Dictionary.com all seem to agree. I didn't realise this wasn't well-known, I'll clarify it in advance next time!
(If there's no estimate from Black Bird within 14 days of market close, it looks like AMK is the median)
@MindBenderMads it's the former, if I understand you correctly. The market concerns the change in de facto territorial control as assessed by the resolution sources, with no regard to what either side claims as its territory