Resolution criteria

This market will resolve OVER if Russia's net territorial gain in the Russia-Ukraine conflict amounts to more than 500 square kilometres in December 2025 according to the resolution sources.

This market will resolve UNDER if Russia's net territorial gain in the Russia-Ukraine conflict amounts to less than 500 square kilometres in December 2025 according to the resolution sources.

This market will resolve 50/50 if Russia's net territorial gain in the Russia-Ukraine conflict rounds to exactly 500 square kilometres in December 2025 according to the resolution sources.

Resolution sources

The resolution of this market will be based on the median estimate provided by the following eight sources:

• LostArmour

• Suriyakmaps (via HeyHeyHayden)

• Creamy caprice

• AMK Mapping

• ISW (via ISW or Russia Matters)

• DeepState

• Divgen

• Black Bird Group

Should one, two or three of the resolution sources fail to provide a usable estimate within 14 days of the market closing, the median of the available estimates will be used.

Should four or more of the resolution sources fail to provide a usable estimate within 14 days of the market closing, the market will be voided.

Clarifications

ISW's estimate will be obtained directly from ISW if possible. Otherwise, it will be obtained from Russia Matters.

The market may resolve early if the outcome is mathematically certain after five or more sources have reported.

I will not trade in this market.

• Update 2025-12-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market concerns changes in de facto territorial control as assessed by the resolution sources, with no regard to what either side claims as its territory. This means the market is about actual occupied territory on the ground, not official territorial claims.