This is one of Vox's Future Perfect predictions for 2023; they give it a 60% chance:
Research into the therapeutic potential of psychedelic drugs has been undergoing a renaissance over the past decade, and it’s now bearing fruit. A May 2022 letter from the Health and Human Services Department disclosed that President Biden’s administration anticipates regulators will approve MDMA for PTSD and psilocybin for depression within the next two years.
MDMA will probably come first; some experts say that by the end of 2023, it’s very likely to become FDA-approved for PTSD. Meanwhile, psilocybin will probably get approved for depression the next year. But with such a delicate issue as this, it’s always possible that some late-stage questions will emerge around the clinical trials or plans for implementing an approval, and that could bog things down, so I’m only giving this prediction 60 percent odds.
(Vox)
Resolves according to Vox Future Perfect's judgment at the end of the year.
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This resolves NO because Vox has published their judgment, " A psychedelic-based mental health treatment will win US regulatory approval (60 percent) — WRONG" https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/24006533/2023-predictions-revisited-trump-biden-politics
I think this will happen, but during 2024, not by the end of 2023: "MAPS PBC expects to submit the new drug application to the FDA in the third quarter of 2023." (https://mapspublicbenefit.com/press-releases/maps-pbc-announces-positive-results-from-confirmatory-phase-3-mapp2-trial/). After that it takes a couple of months for the FDA to approve the drug.
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