Will an MDMA-Assisted Therapy for Treatment of PTSD be approved by the FDA before the summer of 2024?
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Jun 21
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Resolves YES if the FDA announces the approval of MDMA-assisted therapy for PTSD before June 21, 2024.

For context "MAPS PBC expects to submit the new drug application to the FDA in the third quarter of 2023." (https://mapspublicbenefit.com/press-releases/maps-pbc-announces-positive-results-from-confirmatory-phase-3-mapp2-trial/)

Feb 6, 10:21am: Will an MDMA-Assisted Therapy for Treatment of PTSD be approved by the FDA before the spring of 2024? → Will an MDMA-Assisted Therapy for Treatment of PTSD be approved by the FDA before the summer of 2024?

Close date updated to 2024-06-20 11:59 pm

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bought Ṁ100 of NO

Can you please clarify the end date, as it is currently set to the end of June, which is not the start of summer but mid-summer (assuming US/northern hemisphere most common seasons).

predicts YES

@WXTJ Isn't that correct for the US? Convention for when seasons start varies by country - e.g in Australia seasons begin on the start of calendar months, but I believe in the US they begin on the equinoxes and solstices.

predicts NO

@chrisjbillington Oh I didn't know that for the US - thanks. For things like this that vary between countries perhaps it's best we all just use unambiguous descriptors like dates. It's clear from context that they mean the US but there are FDAs in multiple countries too.

predicts YES

@WXTJ agree, the problem is people are unaware that these things could possibly even be differences, so they think it is unambiguous! I only figured the season thing out recently from living in both countries.

predicts YES

@chrisjbillington interesting, I thought summer started on the solstice all over the world (June solstice for the North Hemisphere). For the question end date is the one mentioned on the description June 21, the solstice.

bought Ṁ15 of YES

Before anyone bade, I changed the question from spring to summer. It seems like it takes up to 6 months for the FDA to approve the drug even under Priority Review (https://www.fda.gov/drugs/special-features/frequently-asked-questions-about-fda-drug-approval-process).