Will the "OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI before 2025 end" market go below 10% before 2024 ends? | Manifold

Will the "OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI before 2025 end" market go below 10% before 2024 ends?

AI•OpenAI•AGI

52

471

Ṁ12K

Ṁ895

2025

42%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

After the creation of this market, only.

The market in question:

The market must stay under 10% for over 75% of a time period of 12 hrs to prevent transient spikes from counting.

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i accidentally resolved this thinking it was about by 2024, when it is about by the end of 2024. Re-opening

predicts YES

@firstuserhere Should this market also reopen then?

@ScipioFabius thanks! I had totally missed it

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Will OpenAI offer a cheaper paid tier (<20$) or reduce the price of ChatGPT Plus by more than 5$ in 2024?

Will it be public knowledge by EOY 2025 that a major AI lab believed to have created AGI internally before October 2023?

Will OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI by Jan 1, 2030? (1000M Subsidy)

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Will OpenAI name a year by which they expect to have achieved AGI by 01/01/2025?

Will the "OpenAI hint at or claim to have AGI before 2025 end" market go above 60% before 2024 ends?

Will general consensus be that OpenAI is no longer the lead AI company by end of 2024?

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