Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be employed at one of the top AI labs in 2023 or 2024?
151
535
2.3k
2025
13%
chance

Defining top AI labs : coupled tightly with the following markets + redwood research (he expressed desire to join them in the recent episode We’re All Gonna Die with Eliezer Yudkowsky) + conjecture.

An advisory/consultant role counts.

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Guys, it's possible. 10% is low.

If Eliezer were to join the board of directors at OpenAI, that would count.

Do unpaid roles count?

Imagine being eliezer, see a market about my career future trajectory, see comments in this market 👀

...if I'd decided that I wanted to work at Redwood Research, I expect I could just walk in at any time. The question is whether I should.

predicts YES

@EliezerYudkowsky That's a truly gangster move. You should just walk in like you own the place and should them what's up.

bought Ṁ60 of NO

The best investment any AI lab could make would be getting him hired…. by their competitors.

predicts YES

@Gigacasting hahaha but they could do it for signalling purposes

bought Ṁ2 of NO

Eliezer Yudkowsky, a smart fellow
AI safety was his bread and butter
Now cries alone in his pillow
As Google laughs and hires his brother.

Relevant:

Interviewer: Hi Mr. Yudkowski, how was your trip to our fine headquarters?

Eliezer: YOU'RE ALL GOING TO DIE!

Would be lovely to see you participate in this market too, @EliezerYudkowsky

To clarify are you counting redwood as a top AI lab?

@vluzko No, i'm adding it in addition to the top ai labs

@firstuserhere probably should've worded the question better. Redwood is not a top research lab, but the motivation behind the question was about whether people working in places with focus on either strictly technical work, or one of the top ai labs, actually hire Eliezer for some sort of role.

@firstuserhere i've head vaguely that they do p cool alignment stuff? And also only remotely familiar with their Causal scrubbing paper. That's all ik about them

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