Based on twtr buzz, search trends, etc.

Heads up everyone that so far Midjourney, Suno AI, Elevenlabs, (briefly) Runway AI, Meta AI, and Microsoft AI all have search trends vastly higher than Deepmind and still significantly above Anthropic this year globally, the data doesn't lie

@TheAllMemeingEye appreciate the efforts to try to get data, but I think this is an incomplete picture. Midjourney, Suno AI, and some others are narrower companies with products more closely tied to their company name. The term "Claude AI" is above those you listed.

A product word associated with Deepmind (ie, "Gemini") dwarfs all of these.

However, this all challenging to draw conclusions from. For example the term "Apple Intelligence" is above all the terms except "Gemini", but rightfully no one is betting on Apple as in the top 3 pushing the frontier of AI research.

A top AI lab does more than just build one popular product. This means Google trends is one signal, but other signals that weight expert opinion or measure of research impact are also important. Unfortunately it hard to do this, and this market started pretty subjective. I would disagree that Stability AI belongs for 2022 as listed in the description.

My personal subjective opinion for 2024 is OpenAI and Deepmind seems pretty clear for top 3. Anthropic is possibly reasonable, though focus is narrower and their track record for AI innovation is shorter. I could see good arguments for Meta (just bought it from 3%->8%). In addition to their LLM work, they have a broad research mandate with longer history, and talented researchers in CV, robotics, and systems/infrastructure. (though have unclear long term vision for AGI and questionable general company practices).

It's less clear how things will look in future years. Also, it is worth noting that the probabilities of being in the top 3 is of 2024 is a poor reflection of faction of influence. Several organizations in single digits of this market are significant (along with the large set of orgs in "other").

@Dgfold thanks for the input :)

Personally I feel tying the resolution to as objective as possible criteria is important to avoid corruption and groupthink

I'll recheck Google Trends with terms like you suggested, adjusted to avoid non AI interference (e.g. zodiac sign interfering with Gemini)

Do you think the lmsys leaderboard and lead researcher h-indexes would be sufficient measures of the other factors you mention?

long deepseek

@nosuch long qwen

I N/Aed the second deepseek bc duplicate

@mods as gigacasting is long off the site, may want to step in here before EOY to clarify if this market will be NA-ed or if a mod is going to handle the extremely subjective resolution

@Ziddletwix We'll just do a subjective resolution

@jacksonpolack I highly recommend instead using the reasonably objective criteria of search trends as mentioned in the market description (see my comment above)

Specify the resolution criteria and whatever 50/30/20 means please

@GregMister I suspect "50/30/20" means that it resolves 50% to the top AI lab, 30% to the 2nd, etc. but I am not certain.

https://x.com/lmsysorg/status/1823599819551858830

@AndrewG Bruh

just u wait

Anyone else get errors trying to bid on some of these?

If they're at zero you may need to use a limit order

With llama 3 400b it's wild to me that meta is only at 6%

Google Brain and inflection are both subsumed by deepmind and Microsoft respectively, right?

Google Brain no longer exists, it's been merged with Deepmind to create "Google Deepmind".

Right - should those be n/a?

I mean people can vote for obviously wrong things if they want, it just means more mana for us.

2/3 will probably be decided on vibes if OAI is #1

but DM has a small chance to be #1

and DM is probably #2 under an objective view

but Anth could release a good LLM or they judge could be particularly safety minded

Lol I'm unable to vote yes on Microsoft

@wrhall You can do it with limit orders