@mods Any idea how we can expect to resolve this since the creator is gone?

The latest estimate I can find is 370,000, with 50,000 more expected by the end of the year: Vision Pro reaches expected production target as Apple shifts supply chain focus - 9to5Mac.

But it seems very unlikely that we'll get an official count from Apple.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 if we don't get an exact number, maybe the best way is just to cancel it..

@TheWabiSabi We will resolve as many as possible and if there are some we cannot determine, those could be N/A'd. If there are actual figures available in the near future, ping again.

According to sources, Apple component manufacturers had supplied enough parts for at least 500k Vision Pro headsets by October 2024, but had only actually sold around 370k. This had left "tens of thousands of undelivered parts" still awaiting use.

Apple reportedly believes it has now manufactured enough components to meet the Vision Pro's overall expected lifetime sales, which are lower than expected.
https://www.eurogamer.net/apple-vision-pro-3500-headset-reportedly-no-longer-in-production-as-stock-piles-up#:~:text=According%20to%20sources%2C%20Apple%20component,undelivered%20parts%22%20still%20awaiting%20use.

Q1 ~100k
Q2 ~ 80k

500k enough for lifetime sales. Wow! In that case, that 370k seems surprisingly high.
Tailing off demand after initial surge of interest and preorders being filled as assembled at beginning? Seems more likely.

Even flat sales rate 180k /6 months * 10 months is only 300k.
370k seems more like an assembled parts number but lots unsold.

Of course it could be the 370k is correct and the other figures and/or info suggesting tailing off demand are wrong. Could be wrong in other ways too. Guess we will wait and see what info emerges.

@ChristopherRandles So....we could probably resolve the 1 million to No, and the 100k, 150k to Yes? And the rest we can maybe just keep waiting? It seems like the 500k is also No, did other markets about that resolve yet?

@Eliza
https://manifold.markets/_deleted_/will-apple-sell-500000-units-of-vis resolved no
but https://manifold.markets/ian/will-apple-sell-more-than-500k-mr-h hasn't resolved or closed yet but perhaps that is because it goes to 20 Jan 2025

I would agree re 1M, 100k and 150k.
https://sherwood.news/tech/apple-vision-pros-us-sales-drop-quarter-over-quarter/
shows more what I would expect as assembly finishes off the pre-order queue which suggests the 200k is not certain enough to resolve yet.

@ChristopherRandles I resolved the 500k, 1 million, 100k, and 150k. We can keep waiting on the others. We'll get closer eventually.

Gizmodo reporting, "The market analyst firm IDC told Bloomberg the Apple Vision Pro has yet to sell 100,000 units."

Seems deceptive. The Bloomberg article that this Gizmodo report cites says "has yet to sell 100,000 units in a quarter since its launch". It's been been available for 3 financial quarters

somewhat related ☺️ -> /Soli/what-will-be-true-about-my-experien

Looks like the market maker is gone

You should add some finer options between 500K and 1M I think, given the steep drop.

Where will you get this data from?

How the hell is this 1 million option so high????