What's your likelihood: Scaling LLMs will lead to transformational AI | Manifold

What's your likelihood: Scaling LLMs will lead to transformational AI

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In Jan 2027, will the top 3 leading AI labs be offering fewer than 15 flagship LLMs between them?

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

Will the most interesting AI in 2027 be a LLM?

Will Transformer-Based LLMs Make Up ≥75% of Parameters in the Top General AI by 2030?

Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?

Will LLMs be generally able to produce human-level text in 2026?

Will a new form of AI surpass LLM’s before 2030?

There will be one LLM/AI that is at least 10x better than all others in 2027

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Will LLMs still mostly preserve high ELO rankings of AI safety people at EOY 2028?

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Define transformational. Isn't ChatGPT already transformational?

@Shump Transformative I think. I copied the question from a Dwarkesh Patel podcast, pretty sure he meant transformative. I'll check

Transformative AI? Sure.

Full AGI? No.

People are also trading

In Jan 2027, will the top 3 leading AI labs be offering fewer than 15 flagship LLMs between them?

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

Will the most interesting AI in 2027 be a LLM?

Will Transformer-Based LLMs Make Up ≥75% of Parameters in the Top General AI by 2030?

Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?

Will LLMs be generally able to produce human-level text in 2026?

Will a new form of AI surpass LLM’s before 2030?

There will be one LLM/AI that is at least 10x better than all others in 2027

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Will LLMs still mostly preserve high ELO rankings of AI safety people at EOY 2028?

Related questions

In Jan 2027, will the top 3 leading AI labs be offering fewer than 15 flagship LLMs between them?

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

Will the most interesting AI in 2027 be a LLM?

Will Transformer-Based LLMs Make Up ≥75% of Parameters in the Top General AI by 2030?

Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?

Will LLMs be generally able to produce human-level text in 2026?

Will a new form of AI surpass LLM’s before 2030?

There will be one LLM/AI that is at least 10x better than all others in 2027

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Will LLMs still mostly preserve high ELO rankings of AI safety people at EOY 2028?