This resolves YES if there exists an architecture that would unambiguously count as both an LLM and AGI, and could be trained and run on all the world's computing power combined as of market creation. Reasoning models and  agentic frameworks do count as LLMs, provided the scaffolding is just some form of feeding its answers back into itself, giving it multiple scratchpads, or other very simple things like that. It cannot add any external system that would itself seem "intelligent".

This market resolves after there's a broad consensus as to the correct answer, which likely won't be until after AGI has been reached and humanity has a much better conceptual understanding of what intelligence is and how it works. In the event of disagreements over what constitutes an LLM or AGI, I'll defer to a vote among Manifold users.

(In order to count as an AGI, it needs to be 

 intelligent. If it would take 1000 years to answer a question, that doesn't count.)

(Note that there are two forms of non-predictive bias at play here. If your P(doom) is high, you'll value mana lower in worlds where LLMs can reach AGI, since we're more likely to die in those worlds than if we don't obtain AGI until much later. But if your P(doom) is low, this market probably resolves sooner if the answer is YES, so due to your discount rate there's a bias towards betting on YES.)