Predictions about destruction due to Earthquakes in 2024
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14
Ṁ1852Jan 1
67%
An earthquake occurs that causes >=1000 deaths (anywhere in the world)
25%
An earthquake occurs that causes >=150 fatalities in the US
11%
An earthquake occurs that causes >=10,000 deaths (anywhere in the world)
Resolved
YESAn earthquake occurs that causes >=150 fatalities (Anywhere in the world)
Submit predictions relevant to Destruction due to Earthquakes. All predictions are supposed to be about 2024. I will N/A irrelevant predictions or predictions about broader timeframes. By default, if no timeframe is mentioned, it is to be assumed as sometime in 2024.
If there are multiple, simultaneous (<24 hrs apart) earthquakes in the same location, then this market will treat them as a singular earthquake by default, unless otherwise specified.
As for the fatalities, a few (>3, <10) of the reputable reportings of the number will be averaged to get an estimate.
Only about earthquakes in 2024, not before.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@firstuserhere The current count is 244 deaths, so the 150 option should resolve YES: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Noto_earthquake
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