California will experience an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater by July 18, 2025?
19
100Ṁ1592
resolved Oct 31
Resolved
NO

This market predicts whether California will experience an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater by July 18, 2025. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) provides real-time earthquake data, which will be used to resolve this market. USGS Earthquake Map

  • Update 2025-04-21 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Geographic Scope Update:

    • Only earthquakes occurring within the official boundaries of the U.S. state of California will be considered.

    • Earthquakes in Baja California will not count.

World
United States
News
Science
Climate
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ55
2Ṁ27
3Ṁ23
4Ṁ19
5Ṁ13

People are also trading

Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater before 2030?
11% chance
Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or greater before 2030?
8% chance
Where will the largest magnitude Earthquake be in 2025?
Will the number of >M6.0 earthquakes double in any 2 week period in 2025?
61% chance
Will there be an earthquake of at least 5.5 Magnitude on Cinco de Mayo 2026? (May 5)
61% chance
Will the Cascadia megaearthquake (magnitude 8.0 or above) in the Pacific NW happen by 2035?
20% chance
The next 6.0 quake in CA happens in an even month
49% chance
Will San Francisco experience a major earthquake before 2030?
49% chance
Will the Cascadia Subduction Zone experience a earthquake of magnitude at least 8.0 before 2073?
34% chance
Sort by:

https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=-89.97972,-73.125&extent=89.97921,433.125&range=search&map=false&search=%7B%22name%22:%22Search%20Results%22,%22params%22:%7B%22starttime%22:%222025-03-14%2000:00:00%22,%22endtime%22:%222025-07-21%2023:59:59%22,%22minmagnitude%22:6,%22orderby%22:%22time%22%7D%7D

@Singhling I don't see any. Resolve NO?

@mods I believe this resolves NO. You can use this link to reproduce a corroborating search result. https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/

No baja doesn't count

bought Ṁ20 NO

Does Baja California count?

People are also trading

Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater before 2030?
11% chance
Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or greater before 2030?
8% chance
Where will the largest magnitude Earthquake be in 2025?
Will the number of >M6.0 earthquakes double in any 2 week period in 2025?
61% chance
Will there be an earthquake of at least 5.5 Magnitude on Cinco de Mayo 2026? (May 5)
61% chance
Will the Cascadia megaearthquake (magnitude 8.0 or above) in the Pacific NW happen by 2035?
20% chance
The next 6.0 quake in CA happens in an even month
49% chance
Will San Francisco experience a major earthquake before 2030?
49% chance
Will the Cascadia Subduction Zone experience a earthquake of magnitude at least 8.0 before 2073?
34% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy