Predictions about destruction due to Earthquakes in 2024
World•Natural Disasters•Earthquake
11
219
Ṁ280
2025
99.9%
An earthquake occurs that causes >=150 fatalities (Anywhere in the world)
67%
An earthquake occurs that causes >=1000 deaths (anywhere in the world)
21%
An earthquake occurs that causes >=150 fatalities in the US
21%
An earthquake occurs that causes >=10,000 deaths (anywhere in the world)

Submit predictions relevant to Destruction due to Earthquakes. All predictions are supposed to be about 2024. I will N/A irrelevant predictions or predictions about broader timeframes. By default, if no timeframe is mentioned, it is to be assumed as sometime in 2024.

If there are multiple, simultaneous (<24 hrs apart) earthquakes in the same location, then this market will treat them as a singular earthquake by default, unless otherwise specified.

As for the fatalities, a few (>3, <10) of the reputable reportings of the number will be averaged to get an estimate.

Only about earthquakes in 2024, not before.

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bought Ṁ100 An earthquake occurs... YES

New 7.4 earthquake in Taiwan: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000m9g4/executive

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/04/02/world/asia/map-taiwan-earthquake-hualien.html

bought Ṁ11 of An earthquake occurs... YES

7mag earthquake on the China/Kyrgyzstan border just now

Jan 1 : https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-67855990, earthquake in japan

@firstuserhere The current count is 244 deaths, so the 150 option should resolve YES: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Noto_earthquake

So not before 2024, right?

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