Predictions about destruction due to Earthquakes in 2024

Basic

14

Ṁ1.9kJan 1

1D

1W

1M

ALL

99.9%

An earthquake occurs that causes >=150 fatalities (Anywhere in the world)

67%

An earthquake occurs that causes >=1000 deaths (anywhere in the world)

25%

An earthquake occurs that causes >=150 fatalities in the US

11%

An earthquake occurs that causes >=10,000 deaths (anywhere in the world)

Submit predictions relevant to *Destruction due to Earthquakes*. All predictions are supposed to be about 2024. I will N/A irrelevant predictions or predictions about broader timeframes. By default, if no timeframe is mentioned, it is to be assumed as sometime in 2024.

If there are multiple, simultaneous (<24 hrs apart) earthquakes in the same location, then this market will treat them as a singular earthquake by default, unless otherwise specified.

As for the fatalities, a few (>3, <10) of the reputable reportings of the number will be averaged to get an estimate.

Only about earthquakes in 2024, not before.

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Will there be an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or larger during 2024?

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Where will the largest magnitude Earthquake be in 2024?

Will a large earthquake rock a major city that isn't in a tectonically active area by end 2029?

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Will America get a big earthquake, along the West Coast and as far as Mexico City, in 2024?

14% chance

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@firstuserhere The current count is 244 deaths, so the 150 option should resolve YES: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Noto_earthquake

## Related questions

## Related questions

Will there be an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or larger during 2024?

31% chance

Will we be able to predict earthquakes by 2035?

28% chance

Where will the largest magnitude Earthquake be in 2024?

Will there be any catastrophic cascading natural disasters in 2023 or 2024?

21% chance

Will a large earthquake rock a major city that isn't in a tectonically active area by end 2029?

40% chance

Will an earthquake over 6.4 magnitude happen before 2026 in the USA?

61% chance

Will a single natural disaster event kill more than 50,000 people in 2024?

17% chance

Will there be an earthquake causing at least 1 death in New Zealand by 2027?

23% chance

Will there be many natural disasters in 2024 around the world, including an earthquake in America and Italy?

24% chance

Will America get a big earthquake, along the West Coast and as far as Mexico City, in 2024?

14% chance