Predictions about destruction due to Earthquakes in 2024
➕
Plus
18
Ṁ6057
resolved Jan 2
Resolved
YES
An earthquake occurs that causes >=150 fatalities (Anywhere in the world)
Resolved
NO
An earthquake occurs that causes >=150 fatalities in the US
Resolved
NO
An earthquake occurs that causes >=1000 deaths (anywhere in the world)
Resolved
NO
An earthquake occurs that causes >=10,000 deaths (anywhere in the world)

Submit predictions relevant to Destruction due to Earthquakes. All predictions are supposed to be about 2024. I will N/A irrelevant predictions or predictions about broader timeframes. By default, if no timeframe is mentioned, it is to be assumed as sometime in 2024.

If there are multiple, simultaneous (<24 hrs apart) earthquakes in the same location, then this market will treat them as a singular earthquake by default, unless otherwise specified.

As for the fatalities, a few (>3, <10) of the reputable reportings of the number will be averaged to get an estimate.

Only about earthquakes in 2024, not before.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ245
2Ṁ81
3Ṁ53
4Ṁ38
5Ṁ31


Sort by:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_2024
There were also no earthquakes exceeding ≥M8 for the third year in a row. Throughout the year, earthquakes killed 561 people, making 2024 the least deadliest year for earthquakes since 2020.

This includes 504 in Japan January 2024, so no others over 150 fatalities.
Article seems thorough and includes quake on 30 Dec. There is a 5.6 and a couple of 5.1s on 31st Dec but these seem unlikely to cause more than a few fatalities if any.
https://ds.iris.edu/seismon/eventlist/index.phtml

@mods deleted creator account, resolve please (or maybe wait a few days before resolving if you want more clarity?)

1y
9mo

@firstuserhere The current count is 244 deaths, so the 150 option should resolve YES: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Noto_earthquake

1y

So not before 2024, right?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules