Submit predictions relevant to Destruction due to Earthquakes. All predictions are supposed to be about 2024. I will N/A irrelevant predictions or predictions about broader timeframes. By default, if no timeframe is mentioned, it is to be assumed as sometime in 2024.
If there are multiple, simultaneous (<24 hrs apart) earthquakes in the same location, then this market will treat them as a singular earthquake by default, unless otherwise specified.
As for the fatalities, a few (>3, <10) of the reputable reportings of the number will be averaged to get an estimate.
Only about earthquakes in 2024, not before.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_earthquakes_in_2024
There were also no earthquakes exceeding ≥M8 for the third year in a row. Throughout the year, earthquakes killed 561 people, making 2024 the least deadliest year for earthquakes since 2020.
This includes 504 in Japan January 2024, so no others over 150 fatalities.
Article seems thorough and includes quake on 30 Dec. There is a 5.6 and a couple of 5.1s on 31st Dec but these seem unlikely to cause more than a few fatalities if any.
https://ds.iris.edu/seismon/eventlist/index.phtml
@mods deleted creator account, resolve please (or maybe wait a few days before resolving if you want more clarity?)
@firstuserhere The current count is 244 deaths, so the 150 option should resolve YES: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Noto_earthquake