Predictions about destruction due to Earthquakes in 2024 | Manifold

Predictions about destruction due to Earthquakes in 2024

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14

Ṁ1852

Jan 1

67%

An earthquake occurs that causes >=1000 deaths (anywhere in the world)

25%

An earthquake occurs that causes >=150 fatalities in the US

11%

An earthquake occurs that causes >=10,000 deaths (anywhere in the world)

Resolved

YES

An earthquake occurs that causes >=150 fatalities (Anywhere in the world)

Submit predictions relevant to Destruction due to Earthquakes. All predictions are supposed to be about 2024. I will N/A irrelevant predictions or predictions about broader timeframes. By default, if no timeframe is mentioned, it is to be assumed as sometime in 2024.

If there are multiple, simultaneous (<24 hrs apart) earthquakes in the same location, then this market will treat them as a singular earthquake by default, unless otherwise specified.

As for the fatalities, a few (>3, <10) of the reputable reportings of the number will be averaged to get an estimate.

Only about earthquakes in 2024, not before.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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bought Ṁ100 An earthquake occurs... YES

New 7.4 earthquake in Taiwan: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000m9g4/executive

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/04/02/world/asia/map-taiwan-earthquake-hualien.html

7mag earthquake on the China/Kyrgyzstan border just now

Jan 1 : https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-67855990, earthquake in japan

@firstuserhere The current count is 244 deaths, so the 150 option should resolve YES: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Noto_earthquake

So not before 2024, right?

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Related questions

Where will the largest magnitude Earthquake be in 2024?

Will there be any catastrophic cascading natural disasters in 2023 or 2024?

Will we be able to predict earthquakes by 2035?

Will there be an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or larger during 2024?

Will an earthquake of 4.0 or more with an epicenter within 5 km of San Francisco happen in 2024?

Will there be many natural disasters in 2024 around the world, including an earthquake in America and Italy?

Will America get a big earthquake, along the West Coast and as far as Mexico City, in 2024?

Will a single natural disaster event kill more than 50,000 people in 2024?

Will an earthquake over 6.4 magnitude happen before 2026 in the USA?

Will a large earthquake rock a major city that isn't in a tectonically active area by end 2029?

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