Will there be an earthquake causing at least 1 death in New Zealand by 2027?
18
80
1k
2026
25%
chance
Get Ṁ600 play money
Sort by:

As a Kiwi (living in Australia now though) you can't underestimate the amount of remediation work undertaken by the government after the Christchurch earthquakes. Many (many!) buildings in Wellington that were supposedly up to code have been investigated and forced to take additional strengthening measures. This strengthening wasn't just in Wellington but across the entire country.

@SamuelRichardson Wellington still doesn’t have a central library it can use because the council can’t afford to remediate it.

Some clarity on causes:

  • earthquake drops a building on someone: presumably counts

  • Power outage results in a death: ?

  • Slips, flooding, etc. as a secondary effects?

  • Deaths due to general chaos confusion, eg traffic accident

@Nps I would think that the first three would count, the last one wouldn’t. I’d probably have to use my judgement at the time, though.

bought Ṁ30 of NO

10 quakes with at least one fatality since 1950. If it's a Poisson process, that suggests a 44% probability of another over the next 4.17 years.

Will there be an earthquake causing at least 1 death in New Zealand by 2027?, 8k, beautiful, illustration, trending on art station, picture of the day, epic composition