Will a large earthquake rock a major city that isn't in a tectonically active area by end 2029?
11
á¹€150á¹€2032030
35%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
"Large Earthquake": 6.5 or larger, felt locally as 6.0+
"Major City": 1 million or more people, anywhere on Earth
"Isn't Tectonically Active": not on a known fault line and not somewhere that has had a 7.0+ earthquake in the past century
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will there be an earthquake of magnitude >6.0 in the New Madrid Seismic Zone by the end of 2026?
10% chance
Where will the largest magnitude Earthquake be in 2026?
Will San Francisco experience a major earthquake before 2030?
12% chance
Will a major earthquake (above 8.0 magnitude) strike a populated area in the Pacific Ring of Fire within five years?
82% chance
Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or greater before 2030?
9% chance
Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater before 2030?
28% chance
Will the Cascadia megaearthquake (magnitude 8.0 or above) in the Pacific NW happen by 2035?
24% chance
Will we be able to predict earthquakes by 2035?
32% chance