Major earthquake would involve property damage of over $1B or loss of life over 100. Epicenter has to be within 50 miles of San Francisco. Loma Prieta quake would not have qualified due to distance.
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The site below lists many earthquakes that would not count due to distance. I’d argue that an earthquake large enough to qualify almost never happens in the specified radius, maybe once or twice a century. We’d have to be extremely unlucky to get one in the next 5 and a half years.
“Since 1836, there have been five earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay Area with a magnitude of 6.75 or higher. If earthquakes struck randomly over time, the region would expect another earthquake of this same magnitude in the next 30 years with about a 50 percent probability.”
@Spensicus I don’t think it matters but I will use the damage figures as reported by reputable sources, so it would be nominal dollars e.g., value at the time of the quake.