Will San Francisco experience a major earthquake before 2030?
34
1kṀ92492031
41%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Major earthquake would involve property damage of over $1B or loss of life over 100. Epicenter has to be within 50 miles of San Francisco. Loma Prieta quake would not have qualified due to distance.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 7.5 or greater before 2030?
9% chance
California will experience an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 or greater by July 18, 2025?
2% chance
Will California experience an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or greater before 2030?
8% chance
Will 10% of San Francisco die in any year from disaster, before 2035?
1% chance
Will the population of San Francisco reach 950,000 before 2030?
29% chance
Will AI predict the next magnitude 7+ earthquake to hit San Francisco before it happens?
21% chance
Will the Cascadia megaearthquake (magnitude 8.0 or above) in the Pacific NW happen by 2035?
20% chance
Will an earthquake over 6.4 magnitude happen before 2026 in the USA?
64% chance
Will San Francisco's Millennium Tower experience any collapse by EOY 2100?
42% chance
Will San Francisco in 2025 be significantly safer than in 2022?
83% chance