LLMs to the moon? (By 2030) | Manifold

LLMs to the moon? (By 2030)

41

1kṀ1274

2030

49%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves YES if an LLM is transported from earth to the moon, physically, as part of an equipment on a mission to the Moon (earth's moon). Otherwise NO.

The LLMs in the market title does not mean that multiple LLMs are required to go to the moon. A single LLM would be sufficient for a YES resolution

The weights and activations themselves must go to the moon, whether printed out or as circuitry does not matter. api calls back to earth do not count.

End date: Jan 1 2030

The first 24 hrs from the creation of the market act as a buffer period to solidify market resolution criteria.

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Will LLM training costs fall 300x by 2028?

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