Will the most advanced LLM stop being from a US-based company any time before 2030?
12
1kṀ1622030
34%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If there's a tie, all tied models are counted.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Related questions
Will a major technology company publicly admit to using a LLM for important decision making before 2025?
13% chance
Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2029?
75% chance
Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?
86% chance
Will China have the best LLM by the end of 2025?
16% chance
Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2030?
79% chance
Will an LLM that someone is trying to shut down stop or avoid that in some way before 2026?
13% chance
Will a frontier-level diffusion LLM exist by 2028?
41% chance
Will Apple release its own LLM on par with state of the art LLMs before 2026?
4% chance
Will Google cancel an LLM-based product by end of 2025?
30% chance
Will there be major breakthrough in LLM Continual Learning before 2026?
12% chance