Will LLM training costs fall 100x by 2028? | Manifold

Will LLM training costs fall 100x by 2028?

9

110Ṁ555

2028

92%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Will LLM training costs fall 100x by 2028?

Will LLM training costs fall 1,000x by 2028?

Will LLM training costs fall 300x by 2028?

Will there be major breakthrough in LLM Continual Learning before 2026?

Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?

Will RL work for LLMs "spill over" to the rest of RL by 2026?

Will Apple release its own LLM on par with state of the art LLMs before 2026?

How soon will Private investment in LLMs be lower than it was in 2024Q1? (from 01.01 to 31.3 of 2024)

Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?

Which company will have the best LLM by the end of 2024?

Sort by:

Two questions:

How do you resolve this bet? How do you define the costs?
What is the difference with this seemingly identical bet? https://manifold.markets/Gigacasting/will-llm-training-costs-fall-100x-b-4303c981c158

@ErwinRossen Agreed that it’s not clear enough as is. If LLMs get 100x easier to train but the $/FLOP doesn’t change, does this resolve YES or NO? If the latter, then need to take a specific model and place a $ value on training it with a fixed recipe. If the former, then need to specify a benchmark score that needs to be reached.

predictedYES

800-10k llamas

People are also trading

Will LLM training costs fall 100x by 2028?

Will LLM training costs fall 1,000x by 2028?

Will LLM training costs fall 300x by 2028?

Will there be major breakthrough in LLM Continual Learning before 2026?

Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?

Will RL work for LLMs "spill over" to the rest of RL by 2026?

Will Apple release its own LLM on par with state of the art LLMs before 2026?

How soon will Private investment in LLMs be lower than it was in 2024Q1? (from 01.01 to 31.3 of 2024)

Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?

Which company will have the best LLM by the end of 2024?

Related questions

Will LLM training costs fall 100x by 2028?

Will LLM training costs fall 1,000x by 2028?

Will LLM training costs fall 300x by 2028?

Will there be major breakthrough in LLM Continual Learning before 2026?

Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?

Will RL work for LLMs "spill over" to the rest of RL by 2026?

Will Apple release its own LLM on par with state of the art LLMs before 2026?

How soon will Private investment in LLMs be lower than it was in 2024Q1? (from 01.01 to 31.3 of 2024)

Will LLMs mostly overcome the Reversal Curse by the end of 2025?

Which company will have the best LLM by the end of 2024?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules