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How likely is it that high-level machine intelligence (HLMI) exists in the next 10 years?
18
Never closes
<10%
10-30%
30-50%
50-70%
70-90%
>90%

Say we have ‘high-level machine intelligence’ when unaided machines can accomplish every task better and more cheaply than human workers.

Ignore aspects of tasks for which being a human is intrinsically advantageous, e.g. being accepted as a jury member.

Think feasibility, not adoption.

For the purposes of this question, assume that human scientific activity continues without major negative disruption.

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Does this include physical tasks?

@MaxMorehead Knowledge work only, there are other questions here for physical tasks

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