
How likely is it that high-level machine intelligence (HLMI) exists in the next 10 years?
17
Never closes
<10%
10-30%
30-50%
50-70%
70-90%
>90%
Say we have ‘high-level machine intelligence’ when unaided machines can accomplish every task better and more cheaply than human workers.
Ignore aspects of tasks for which being a human is intrinsically advantageous, e.g. being accepted as a jury member.
Think feasibility, not adoption.
For the purposes of this question, assume that human scientific activity continues without major negative disruption.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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