Will there be a gpt-4 quality LLM with distributed inference by the end of 2024?

26

1kṀ8907

resolved Jan 2

Resolved

NO

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

The model has a Elo greater than 1190 on ChatbotArena (or if ChatbotArena is no longer available/updating, achieves GPT 4 (03.14) equivalent or greater performance on both MMLU and MT-Bench)
When running inference in a geographically distributed fashion (the computational hardware is not colocated, and is networked over typical consumer equipment)

on heterogeneous hardware (the computational hardware is varied in type, e.g. different GPU models)

without the act of distributed inference causing the model to require 2 OOM more energy usage (e.g. if doing so Is incredibly lossy and inefficient, it does not count. The burden of proof lies on anyone claiming this clause should be activated)

Note: if (or, when) an edge case is presented, it's applicability to this question will be evaluated in mine + Robert's understanding of the spirit of the question.

Technical AI Timelines

GPT-4 speculation

Get

1,000

to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ162
2		Ṁ134
3		Ṁ106
4		Ṁ66
5		Ṁ65

People are also trading

Which next-gen frontier LLMs will be released before GPT-5? (2025)

Will there be an LLM (as good as GPT-4) that was trained with 1/100th the energy consumed to train GPT-4, by 2026?

Will we see a public GPU compute sharing pool for LLM model training or inference before 2026 ?

China will make a LLM approximately as good or better than GPT4 before 2025

Will xAI develop a more capable LLM than GPT-5 by 2026

Will it be possible to run an LLM of GPT-4 (or higher) capability on a portable device by 2027?

When will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4?

Will there be a state-of-the-art LLM that is NOT based on next raw token prediction before 2029?

Will LLMs such as GPT4 be considered a solution to Moravec’s paradox by 2030?

How much time will pass between an LLM being released that beats GPT4 and the next OpenAI LLM being released? (+ANSWERS)

Related questions

Which next-gen frontier LLMs will be released before GPT-5? (2025)

Will there be an LLM (as good as GPT-4) that was trained with 1/100th the energy consumed to train GPT-4, by 2026?

Will we see a public GPU compute sharing pool for LLM model training or inference before 2026 ?

China will make a LLM approximately as good or better than GPT4 before 2025

Will xAI develop a more capable LLM than GPT-5 by 2026

Will it be possible to run an LLM of GPT-4 (or higher) capability on a portable device by 2027?

When will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4?

Will there be a state-of-the-art LLM that is NOT based on next raw token prediction before 2029?

Will LLMs such as GPT4 be considered a solution to Moravec’s paradox by 2030?

How much time will pass between an LLM being released that beats GPT4 and the next OpenAI LLM being released? (+ANSWERS)

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy