China will make a LLM approximately as good or better than GPT4 before 2025

LLMs China GPT-4

Basic

Ṁ4.2k

2025

90%

chance

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Apr 1, 4:30pm: ~~Will China make a LLM as good as GPT4 before 2025?~~ → Will China make a LLM approximately as good or better than GPT4 before 2025?

Apr 1, 4:30pm: ~~Will China make a LLM approximately as good or better than GPT4 before 2025?~~ → China will make a LLM approximately as good or better than GPT4 before 2025

Get Ṁ600 play money

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@NathanYoung If you were referring to the old GPT-4 (based on the fact that you created the market back in 2023), you should resolve the market now.

@Sss19971997 Sorry, wrong nathan. @NathanpmYoung

@NathanpmYoung Yi-Large is significantly better than GPT4-0314 now

Which GPT4 are you referring to?

Qwen-max already score higher than GPT4-0314

01.ai - a chinese LLM, is apparently the best open sourced LLM?

Global open-source LLM English/Chinese benchmarks (November 5, 2023)

bought Ṁ10 YES at 68%

'As good as or better' could cover a wide variety of scenarios that would differ if you were judging from the Chinese government's perspective versus from an American's - are there technical benchmarks you'd like to refer to?

@NathanpmYoung

predicts NO

I think censorship, in both model input and output, will the model worse.