Will there be a state-of-the-art LLM that is NOT based on next raw token prediction before 2029? | Manifold

Will there be a state-of-the-art LLM that is NOT based on next raw token prediction before 2029?

0

100

2029

50%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Which next-gen frontier LLMs will be released before GPT-5? (2025)

🧠 Which LLM will have the most real-world commercial usage by the end of 2025?

❓ Which AI model will lead the LLM race by the end of 2025?

Will Apple release its own LLM on par with state of the art LLMs before 2026?

Will there be major breakthrough in LLM Continual Learning before 2026?

Will the most advanced LLM stop being from a US-based company any time before 2030?

Will any widely used LLM be pre-trained with abstract synthetic data before 2030?

Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?

What will be true of OpenAI's best LLM by EOY 2025?

Will the most interesting AI in 2027 be a LLM?

Related questions

Which next-gen frontier LLMs will be released before GPT-5? (2025)

🧠 Which LLM will have the most real-world commercial usage by the end of 2025?

❓ Which AI model will lead the LLM race by the end of 2025?

Will Apple release its own LLM on par with state of the art LLMs before 2026?

Will there be major breakthrough in LLM Continual Learning before 2026?

Will the most advanced LLM stop being from a US-based company any time before 2030?

Will any widely used LLM be pre-trained with abstract synthetic data before 2030?

Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?

What will be true of OpenAI's best LLM by EOY 2025?

Will the most interesting AI in 2027 be a LLM?

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy