GPT4 or better model available for download by EOY 2024?
56
closes 2025
59%
chance

The intent of this question is to get at whether the open-source community, and/or random torrent pirates or darkweb people or whatever, will be able to download and then run a model as generally capable as GPT-4. (Assuming they have the right hardware). Doesn't have to be legal; if a hacker steals the model and sells it for $$$$ on the darkweb that still counts, if lots of different hackers on the darkweb are able to get it. (If instead it's a one-off sale to someone else who doesn't resell it, that would not count.)

In case of conflict between the "spirit" and the "letter" of this question, I'll resolve in favor of the spirit.

Get Ṁ500 play money

Related questions

Will any group develop a GPT-4 competitor of comparable capability (text) by Oct. 2023
hyperion avatarhyperion
15% chance
Will GPT-5 be released before 2025?
VictorLJZ avatarVictor Li
52% chance
Will GPT 4.5 be announced by October? (2023)
Mira avatarMira
7% chance
Will there be more than 4 major analogues of ChatGPT by the end of 2023?
ValentinGolev avatarValentin Golev
93% chance
Will GPT-4 fine-tuning be available by EOY?
getby avatarI get down
68% chance
Will ChatGPT support image inputs in 2023?
Mira avatarMira
76% chance
Will a large GPT-4 equivalent competitor model be revealed by the end of 2023?
Will ChatGPT have a level of "fact-checking" by the end of 2023?
RahulShah avatarRahul Shah
45% chance
Will GPT-4 fine-tuning be available by October 1st?
getby avatarI get down
5% chance
Will GPT-4's parameter count be known by end of 2024?
Mira avatarMira
41% chance
Will GPT-4's max context window increase by the end of 2023?
Will GPT-4's parameter count be announced by the end of 2023?
ada avatarada
20% chance
GPT-5 by 2025?
Gigacasting avatarGigacasting
59% chance
Will I be able to use GPT4 to work with images by the end of the year?
SneakySly avatarSneakySly
29% chance
When will GPT-5 be released? (2025)
Mira avatarMira
41% chance
Will a GPT4-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware before 2024?
LarsDoucet avatarLars Doucet
13% chance
Will GPT-5 be announced in 2024?
LucasPrietoAl avatarLucas
67% chance
Will GPT-5 launch before 1 January 2025?
Will gpt-4 be free to use by the end of 2023?
Levi avatarLevi
23% chance
Will GPT-5 be released before July 2024?
IsaacKing avatarIsaac
20% chance
Sort by:
DanielKokotajlo avatar
Daniel Kokotajlo

Glad to see such engagement/volume on this question!

Some more thoughts on why I made it:
--IMO, GPT4 is close to the level of capability required to be an autonomous agent. But not quite there yet according to ARC's autonomous replication eval. But... maybe in another year, there'll be techniques and datasets etc. that push models noticeably further in that direction, analogous to how RLHF can 'stretch' the base model in the direction of being a helpful assistant or chatbot. Also, I couldn't ask about GPT-5 or whatever because that would make the question harder to resolve.
--IMO, GPT4 is already somewhat useful for bioterror and hacking and various other such things. So if a "uncensored" and unmonitored GPT4-class model is widely available, we might start seeing interesting effects in those domains.

mattburtell avatar
Matt Burtell

See also: