How much time will pass between an LLM being released that beats GPT4 and the next OpenAI LLM being released? (+ANSWERS)
10
68
Ṁ110Ṁ435
2030
1D
1W
1M
ALL
10%
1 week
30%
1 month
10%
6 months
22%
Never (ie OpenAI releases a better model before anyone else can)
12%
3 months
16%
Inspired by this xeet https://twitter.com/chheplo/status/1762169694516301944
How much time will pass between a non-OpenAI LLM being released (like Gemini, Mixtral, etc) that beats GPT4, and OpenAI releasing their next LLM (GPT4.5, or GPT5, etc)?
Only the largest answer without going over will be chosen. So no saying 1 second and expecting to get all the mana.
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