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MANIFOLD
How much time will pass between an LLM being released that beats GPT4 and the next OpenAI LLM being released? (+ANSWERS)
13
Ṁ1kṀ1.1k
2030
12%
1 week
60%
1 month
3%
6 months
10%
Never (ie OpenAI releases a better model before anyone else can)
4%
3 months
11%
Other

Inspired by this xeet https://twitter.com/chheplo/status/1762169694516301944

How much time will pass between a non-OpenAI LLM being released (like Gemini, Mixtral, etc) that beats GPT4, and OpenAI releasing their next LLM (GPT4.5, or GPT5, etc)?

Only the largest answer without going over will be chosen. So no saying 1 second and expecting to get all the mana.

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@BoydKane I think this should resolve to 1 month: EpochAI's ECI benchmark aggregate shows Claude 3 Opus beating GPT-4, and GPT-4 Turbo (Apr 2024) being realeased a little over a month later. If you think the performance gap it to small Claude 3.5 Sonnet would be the first to beat GPT-4, and GPT-4o mini was released less than one month later, but o1 a little over 2 months later.

@BoydKane out of curiosity, when will you resolve this?

Claude 3 Opus looks like it beats GPT4, but I'll wait and see when some more independent benchmarks come out and verify the fact

bought Ṁ9 YES

So when does “never” resolve?

opened a Ṁ250 YES at 20% order

@Johne5ee I assume it resolves if the next OpenAI LLM is released without a competitor beating GPT-4

@bohaska Correct intepretation, although I could have phrased it better. I'll see if I can add a clarification

@bohaska They released o1 mini and preview. Does that count?

@SarM I'm not the creator, but if I were, I would say Claude 3.5 Sonnet definitely beat GPT-4, and that o1 preview definitely beats Sonnet

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