How much time will pass between an LLM being released that beats GPT4 and the next OpenAI LLM being released? (+ANSWERS)
12
1kṀ5652030
4%
1 week
15%
1 month
53%
6 months
10%
Never (ie OpenAI releases a better model before anyone else can)
5%
3 months
12%
Inspired by this xeet https://twitter.com/chheplo/status/1762169694516301944
How much time will pass between a non-OpenAI LLM being released (like Gemini, Mixtral, etc) that beats GPT4, and OpenAI releasing their next LLM (GPT4.5, or GPT5, etc)?
Only the largest answer without going over will be chosen. So no saying 1 second and expecting to get all the mana.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Which next-gen frontier LLMs will be released before GPT-5? (2025)
Will there be an LLM (as good as GPT-4) that was trained with 1/100th the energy consumed to train GPT-4, by 2026?
82% chance
When will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4?
Will OpenAI's next major LLM (after GPT-4) surpass 74% accuracy on the GPQA benchmark?
86% chance
Will OpenAI's next major LLM (after GPT-4) surpass 70% accuracy on the GPQA benchmark?
75% chance
Will xAI develop a more capable LLM than GPT-5 by 2026
51% chance
Sort by:
@Johne5ee I assume it resolves if the next OpenAI LLM is released without a competitor beating GPT-4
@bohaska Correct intepretation, although I could have phrased it better. I'll see if I can add a clarification
@SarM I'm not the creator, but if I were, I would say Claude 3.5 Sonnet definitely beat GPT-4, and that o1 preview definitely beats Sonnet
People are also trading
Related questions
Which next-gen frontier LLMs will be released before GPT-5? (2025)
Will there be an LLM (as good as GPT-4) that was trained with 1/100th the energy consumed to train GPT-4, by 2026?
82% chance
When will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4?
Will OpenAI's next major LLM (after GPT-4) surpass 74% accuracy on the GPQA benchmark?
86% chance
Will OpenAI's next major LLM (after GPT-4) surpass 70% accuracy on the GPQA benchmark?
75% chance
Will xAI develop a more capable LLM than GPT-5 by 2026
51% chance