When will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4?
6
137
395
2026
1.4%
Q3 2023
3%
Q4 2023
9%
Q1-Q2 2024
34%
Q3-Q4 2024
30%
2025
13%
2026
10%
Other

"Better" is a moving target since LLMs tend to be compared on large suites of tasks and datasets, and over time the consensus of effective benchmarks changes.

But the question will resolve positively if it shows matching or better performance on at least 3 benchmarks that are reasonably standard at the time and somewhat general purpose (not specialized on maths, coding or some other narrow class of reasoning).

Open-source means that both the code and the weights are openly available, regardless of the license.

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which GPT-4 variant are you inferring to?

bought Ṁ100 of Q3 2023 NO

Q3 should resolve to no by now, right?

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