When will an open-source LLM be released with a better performance than GPT-4?
7
395Ṁ6492026
0.4%
Q3 2023
0.7%
Q4 2023
2%
Q1-Q2 2024
88%
Q3-Q4 2024
5%
2025
2%
2026
1.6%
"Better" is a moving target since LLMs tend to be compared on large suites of tasks and datasets, and over time the consensus of effective benchmarks changes.
But the question will resolve positively if it shows matching or better performance on at least 3 benchmarks that are reasonably standard at the time and somewhat general purpose (not specialized on maths, coding or some other narrow class of reasoning).
Open-source means that both the code and the weights are openly available, regardless of the license.
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@JonEzeiza bro, if u r referring to GPT-4-0314, we already have several open source models better than it
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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