When will we find out about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages, what quarter of what year?

Will LLMs be used for academic peer review by 2030?

Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?

Will either Democratic or Republican party be revealed to have used LLMs for voter prediction in the 2028 US elections?

Will there be a state-of-the-art LLM that is NOT based on next raw token prediction before 2029?

Will the most advanced LLM stop being from a US-based company any time before 2030?

Will I write an academic paper using an LLM by 2030?

At the beginning of 2028, will LLMs still make egregious common-sensical errors?

Will a frontier-level diffusion LLM exist by 2028?

Will an LLM have been used as part of the composition a work which wins the Nobel Prize in Literature by 2040?