Will an LLM have been used as part of the composition a work which wins the Nobel Prize in Literature by 2040?
6
150Ṁ762040
76%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Requires public confirmation of this by the author or affiliate.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Related questions
Related questions
Will LLMs be used for academic peer review by 2030?
71% chance
Will I write an academic paper using an LLM by 2030?
65% chance
Will "large reasoning models" significantly outperform traditional LLMs in creative writing by 2026?
63% chance
Will an LLM do a task that the user hadn't requested in a notable way before 2026?
95% chance
Will a publicly-available LLM achieve gold on IMO before 2026?
60% chance
Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?
58% chance
Will any major science fiction short story markets lift their categorical ban on writing with LLMs by 2030?
43% chance
Will Apple release its own LLM on par with state of the art LLMs before 2026?
49% chance
Will an LLM consistently create 5x5 word squares by 2026?
83% chance
Will the most advanced LLM stop being from a US-based company any time before 2030?
31% chance