Subjective market.

Resolves to YES if Zvi feels his personal p(doom) has declined sufficiently in 2024 that, as of 1/1/2025, if forced to pick a number after all the various caveats, he would now pick a number lower than his current (as of 1/1/24) 60%, and would now say 50% or less.

Resolves to NO if Zvi would still say 60% or higher if asked for one significant figure.

Arguments are of course welcome but are likely better placed on the blog rather than here.

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@ZviMowshowitz I bought YES so I guess I don't mind, but I interpreted "and would now say 50% or less." to mean that anything over 50% means NO, and "substantially" means a 10%+ drop.

## Related questions

## Related questions

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 50% at any point before 2040?

25% chance

Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?

31% chance

Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 10 years (2033)?

63% chance

Will Eliezer's AI doom market have a higher P(doom) in the third quarter of 2026 than today's (2023-09-27) 21%?

33% chance

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky publicly claim to have a P(doom) of less than 97% at any point before 2028?

20% chance

Will the next president state a P(doom)?

What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2024?

29% chance

Will Zvi endorse a presidential candidate in 2024?

48% chance

What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2025?

39% chance

What will Manifold's P(doom) be at the end of 2026?

41% chance