Will Zvi's p(doom) go down substantially in 2024?
73
372
Ṁ5.7KṀ1.1K
2025
29%
chance
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1M
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Subjective market.
Resolves to YES if Zvi feels his personal p(doom) has declined sufficiently in 2024 that, as of 1/1/2025, if forced to pick a number after all the various caveats, he would now pick a number lower than his current (as of 1/1/24) 60%, and would now say 50% or less.
Resolves to NO if Zvi would still say 60% or higher if asked for one significant figure.
Arguments are of course welcome but are likely better placed on the blog rather than here.
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@ZviMowshowitz I bought YES so I guess I don't mind, but I interpreted "and would now say 50% or less." to mean that anything over 50% means NO, and "substantially" means a 10%+ drop.
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