Will Zvi's p(doom) go down substantially in 2024?
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1.1kṀ52kresolved Jan 1
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Subjective market.
Resolves to YES if Zvi feels his personal p(doom) has declined sufficiently in 2024 that, as of 1/1/2025, if forced to pick a number after all the various caveats, he would now pick a number lower than his current (as of 1/1/24) 60%, and would now say 50% or less.
Resolves to NO if Zvi would still say 60% or higher if asked for one significant figure.
Arguments are of course welcome but are likely better placed on the blog rather than here.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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