Will Zvi's p(doom) go down substantially in 2024?
86
418
1.1k
2025
21%
chance

Subjective market.


Resolves to YES if Zvi feels his personal p(doom) has declined sufficiently in 2024 that, as of 1/1/2025, if forced to pick a number after all the various caveats, he would now pick a number lower than his current (as of 1/1/24) 60%, and would now say 50% or less.

Resolves to NO if Zvi would still say 60% or higher if asked for one significant figure.

Arguments are of course welcome but are likely better placed on the blog rather than here.

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Zvi, where have you actually stated your P(doom) publicly?

@LincolnQuirk I have mentioned several times that I refer to it as p(0.6) in my posts.

how does this resolve for values from 50-60%?

@kaizen Under 55 would be yes basically.

predicts YES

@ZviMowshowitz I bought YES so I guess I don't mind, but I interpreted "and would now say 50% or less." to mean that anything over 50% means NO, and "substantially" means a 10%+ drop.

"go down substantially up?"

I think there’s a superfluous “up” in the title?

@DaveK Oh, yeah, whoops. Hopefully it's clear.