Will Zvi's p(doom) go down substantially in 2024?
120
1.1kṀ52k
resolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO

Subjective market.


Resolves to YES if Zvi feels his personal p(doom) has declined sufficiently in 2024 that, as of 1/1/2025, if forced to pick a number after all the various caveats, he would now pick a number lower than his current (as of 1/1/24) 60%, and would now say 50% or less.

Resolves to NO if Zvi would still say 60% or higher if asked for one significant figure.

Arguments are of course welcome but are likely better placed on the blog rather than here.

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