This market refers to any event that happens starting at 5pm EST on August 14, until 5pm EST on August 21. This is intended as a regular series.
Something happens is defined as anything that:
Zvi does NOT know about on August 14, 2026 at 5pm EST.
Obligates (not merely allows) a speed premium post to Don't Worry About the Vase
Is about AI.
The speed premium post can happen after Friday, but the central events that trigger it must occur by Friday 5pm eastern.
It is 100% entirely Zvi's judgment on whether a post was obligated or merely allowed.
Resolves YES if this happens.
Resolves NO if it does not.
If you are betting YES because you believe something has happened, and it has not yet been mentioned in the comments, please mention it and link to it in the comments.
I may respond to affirm that particular things put forward do or do not, as of yet, constitute something happening. I am in no way committing to doing this. If and only if I affirm a YES in this way, then I will resolve the market early. I have decided this is better than maintaining full radio silence.
As a helpful example, the Dwarkesh podcast with Ryan Greenblatt ALLOWS a speed premium post but did not obligate one, so it did not count.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ235 | |
| 2 | Ṁ178 | |
| 3 | Ṁ176 | |
| 4 | Ṁ157 | |
| 5 | Ṁ72 |
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@AbuElBanat imo probably does not qualify on its own because Sam said something similar in an interview a couple weeks ago. But! If this then causes Anthropic to also join in then that would definitely call for a post. (First coordinated pause ever?)