
Will there be an anti-AI terrorist incident by 2028?
123
Ṁ1.8kṀ7.1k2028
64%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
People are also trading
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000 people before 2029?
44% chance
Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?
16% chance
By 2029, will there be a public "rogue AI" incident?
89% chance
Will there be a highly risky or catastrophic AI agent proliferation event before 2035?
81% chance
Will AI be a bigger political issue than China by the end of 2028?
67% chance
Will any AI researchers be killed by someone explicitly trying to slow AI capabilities by end of 2028?
27% chance
Will an AI Doomer turn to violence by the end of 2026?
31% chance
Will there be a war over AI before 2035?
29% chance
By 2028, will anyone do a terrorist attack against AI capabilities researchers that is plausibly attributable to Yud?
11% chance
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2029?
29% chance
Sort by:
@YaakovSaxon could you make the criteria a bit more precise? What counts as an "anti-AI terrorist incident"?
The background tweet seems to have been deleted. Mind to write it up it here?
@SlipperySloe I'm guessing it was this thread: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1626293663360774144.html
People are also trading
Related questions
Does an AI disaster kill at least 1,000 people before 2029?
44% chance
Will there be a terrorist attack against OpenAI before 2027?
16% chance
By 2029, will there be a public "rogue AI" incident?
89% chance
Will there be a highly risky or catastrophic AI agent proliferation event before 2035?
81% chance
Will AI be a bigger political issue than China by the end of 2028?
67% chance
Will any AI researchers be killed by someone explicitly trying to slow AI capabilities by end of 2028?
27% chance
Will an AI Doomer turn to violence by the end of 2026?
31% chance
Will there be a war over AI before 2035?
29% chance
By 2028, will anyone do a terrorist attack against AI capabilities researchers that is plausibly attributable to Yud?
11% chance
Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2029?
29% chance