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MANIFOLD
Will there be an xkcd about AI in 2026?
5
Ṁ1kṀ1.3k
Dec 31
73%
chance

xkcd has a reputation of providing lots of commentary about contemporary tech issues. However, it has been notably silent about recent AI!

Isn’t this kind of weird? Has anyone else noticed this?

This market is about whether it continues.

I will resolve based on whether the Artificial Intelligence category of explainxkcd contains any comics from 2026 at end of 2026. This assumed that it has not been manipulated; if I suspect its information is wrong I will make the judgement myself.

Note: there was 1 AI xkcd in 2025, 0 in 2024, 1 in 2023, 1 in 2022, 7 in 2021, and lots before then.

(This dearth of coverage of LLMs contributes to my perception that xkcd isn’t as fresh or good anymore. My theory for it is that Randall Munroe just doesn’t like the recent AI paradigm aesthetically and doesn’t want to contribute to the discourse. Or that he doesn’t follow it closely. Maybe he will one day “wake up” to AI x-risk?)

General policy for my markets: In the rare event of a conflict between my resolution criteria and the agreed-upon common-sense spirit of the market, I may resolve it according to the market's spirit or N/A, probably after discussion.

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