This market has a 1% probability of being resolved to YES on 2024 election day.
43
1.1kṀ11k
resolved Nov 5
Resolved
NO

I won't bet on this market. Closer to the election day I'll propose a method for the resolution that won't rely on people trusting my Python algorithm.

To clarify (Apr 13th 2023): this market resolves to NO otherwise

🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election
Self-resolving
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ187
2Ṁ98
3Ṁ45
4Ṁ27
5Ṁ20
Sort by:

I'll generate a random number from 1 to 100 on random.org. If it's 37, I'll resolve this market to YES.

It's tomorrow!!

Is this an attempt to estimate the Manifold analogue of Lizardman's Constant (i.e. the level of distortion in long shots caused by the fact that people don't want to buy 99c for 98c if they have to wait months to collect)?

@PatrickLV yes

Will it resolve NO if it doesn’t resolve YES?

@JoshuaB yes, it will be resolved to NO if it doesn't resolve to YES

Related questions

© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms + Mana-only Terms•Privacy•Rules