This market has a 1% probability of being resolved to YES on 2024 election day. | Manifold

This market has a 1% probability of being resolved to YES on 2024 election day.

Plus

43

Ṁ11k

resolved Nov 5

Resolved

NO

1D

1W

1M

ALL

I won't bet on this market. Closer to the election day I'll propose a method for the resolution that won't rely on people trusting my Python algorithm.

To clarify (Apr 13th 2023): this market resolves to NO otherwise

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

#Self-resolving

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I'll generate a random number from 1 to 100 on random.org. If it's 37, I'll resolve this market to YES.

It's tomorrow!!

Is this an attempt to estimate the Manifold analogue of Lizardman's Constant (i.e. the level of distortion in long shots caused by the fact that people don't want to buy 99c for 98c if they have to wait months to collect)?

Will it resolve NO if it doesn’t resolve YES?

@JoshuaB yes, it will be resolved to NO if it doesn't resolve to YES

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