This market has a 1% probability of being resolved to YES on 2024 election day.

Ṁ1.1kṀ11k

resolved Nov 5

Resolved

ALL

I won't bet on this market. Closer to the election day I'll propose a method for the resolution that won't rely on people trusting my Python algorithm.

To clarify (Apr 13th 2023): this market resolves to NO otherwise

Market context

2024 US Presidential Election

Self-resolving

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#	Trader	Total profit
1		Ṁ187
2		Ṁ98
3		Ṁ45
4		Ṁ27
5		Ṁ20

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this market will resolve to yes if it closes with a greater than 50% chance of resolving to yes

76% chance

This market has a 1/1000 chance of resolving YES each day.

99% chance

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

49% chance

This market stays open forever.

72% chance

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I'll generate a random number from 1 to 100 on random.org. If it's 37, I'll resolve this market to YES.

It's tomorrow!!

Is this an attempt to estimate the Manifold analogue of Lizardman's Constant (i.e. the level of distortion in long shots caused by the fact that people don't want to buy 99c for 98c if they have to wait months to collect)?

@PatrickLV yes

Will it resolve NO if it doesn’t resolve YES?

@JoshuaB yes, it will be resolved to NO if it doesn't resolve to YES

People are also trading

this market will resolve to yes if it closes with a greater than 50% chance of resolving to yes

76% chance

This market has a 1/1000 chance of resolving YES each day.

99% chance

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

49% chance

This market stays open forever.

72% chance

🏅 Top traders

People are also trading

People are also trading

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